The Rudy Gobert Trade One Month Later

(Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

When I first wrote about this trade I wasn’t sure how to feel. I wondered about Gobert’s fit on both ends of the court, particularly with Anthony Edwards and Karl Anthony-Towns. I thought, despite Gobert’s incredible regular season success, essentially being in and of himself a top-ten defense, that he had been disappointing in The Playoffs when it matters most. And it concerned me that this seemed like a move to benefit Karl Anthony-Towns when the team should be focused on Anthony Edwards.

Since then I have been disabused of these notions.

It’s a big swing. And I mean A BIG SWING. Mortgaging the entirety of your draft capital for the foreseeable future as a team with no track record of consistent success, that’s risky. That said, with (relatively) young, aggressive owners who see Anthony Edwards and Karl Anthony-Towns as supremely talented and ready to win, they went all in this off-season.

Off-Season Overview

On May 23rd the Timberwolves hired longtime Denver Nuggets General Manager and President of Basketball Operations, Tim Connelly, to do the same job here in Minnesota. Signing him to a whopping $8 million/year contract that includes some ownership stake. On June 30th the Timberwolves signed Karl Anthony-Towns to a 4-year $215 million extension. On July 6th the Timberwolves traded 4 first-round picks, Walker Kessler, Leandro Balmaro, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Patrick Beverley for Rudy Gobert. And the team also signed Taureen Prince, Kyle Anderson, Bryn Forbes, Austin Rivers, Nathan Knight, and Eric Paschall.

The Vision

The Timberwolves brass obviously wants to win now. Initially, I was concerned about that. I thought they should build slowly in order to have a top-flight team during Anthony Edwards’s prime. After having heard some of the rationale from the front office, I see the vision.

The idea seems to be this: Build a winning culture while Anthony Edwards is young, and mold him in that environment. When I first heard about this trade, I thought it was a hasty attempt to capitalize on a year of success and take advantage of Karl Anthony-Towns during his prime. While I think that is still in part the case, I also think Anthony Edwards is top of mind. Timberwolves leadership, and I think Connelly and Finch specifically, want to be sure Anthony Edwards doesn’t have to go through season after season after season of losing as Karl Anthony-Towns did. That’s the sort of scenario that leads to stars asking for trades. The last thing the Timberwolves want is Anthony Edwards asking to leave town.

Like Kobe in the early 2000s, this trade could help Anthony Edwards gain a lot of playoff experience as a very young player, reaping the benefits for the rest of his career.

Do the Pieces Fit?

Frankly, all any of us are doing when talking about this, or any off-season acquisition, is speculating. None of us have any idea how these pieces are going to fit together on the court. That said, there are a lot of educated guesses we can make about how these new teammates will work together this upcoming season.

Obviously, the big piece in all of this is Gobert, but first I want to highlight how well I think the Timberwolves did at rounding out the rest of the roster.

Kyle Anderson, or slo-mo as he is often referred to, is an amazing addition. He's solid at everything. Anderson plays good defense, rebounds well, and can handle some playmaking responsibilities as well. Bryn Forbes replaces some of the shooting lost when the Wolves traded Malik Beasley. Austin Rivers gives the Wolves another decent ball handler who can speed up the pace, play decent defense and score the ball a little. And Eric Paschall, on a 2-way deal, is an absolute steal. These additions give the Wolves a lot of depth, a depth that has not existed in Minnesota in years, if ever.

Let’s get to the bug guy. The things I continue to hear from pundits about their on-court concerns are primarily about Gobert and Karl Anthony-Towns playing together. On Offense, Gobert will clog up the lane, leaving Karl Anthony-Towns to be a spot-up shooter. On Defense, small ball lineups will make it difficult for the Timberwolves to have both guys out there in crunch time.

Over the course of the last month or so I’ve been thinking about these questions, and here is how I’d respond:

Why are Gobert and Karl Anthony-Towns going to clog up the lane any more than Vanderbilt and Towns? Vanderbilt is without a doubt a worse offensive player than Gobert. Neither of them stretches the floor, but Vando really only scores on put-backs and open two-handed jams.

When Karl Anthony-Towns is off the floor Gobert and D’Angelo Russell can run pick n rolls, which both of them excel at. While Towns is on the floor, they can still run those pick-n-rolls, while Towns is ready for catch-and-shoot 3’s. Towns can also be the ball handler in pick-n-rolls with Gobert, or the team can post Towns up and have Gobert in the dunker's spot like they did with Vanderbilt. If anything you can run the same offense, with the added dimension of higher quality pick n rolls and lob opportunities of which the Wolves had very few last season (5) and Gobert had many (87).

On defense is where I think things may be a little more difficult. I’m not worried about the regular season. However, in the playoffs, especially against teams that go small, it’s going to be difficult to play both Towns and Gobert. One or both would be required to defend the perimeter, and that’s not good. While I think the critiques of Gobert’s defensive abilities on the wing are overblown, he certainly isn’t fantastic out there. Towns is OK out there. Neither should be regularly relied upon for their perimeter defense. I am going to be very curious to see how Finch handles that dynamic in the playoffs.

What does this mean for D’Lo?

A major question after this Gobert trade is what is next for D’Angelo Russell? He’s in the last year of his deal and there's tons of speculation about his future. Some say he should be traded, either to upgrade at the position or add depth. Some say he should be extended. Others say the Timberwolves should just let this year play out and see what happens in the summer.

I think D’Lo is going to benefit from Gobert’s presence this year, on both ends of the court. On offense, I talked earlier about the pick-n-rolls that they could run together. Playing with a rim-running, pick-n-roll big man is what helped propel D’Lo to the All-Star game in 2019. On defense, D’Lo improved last year, becoming a decent team defender, but having Gobert behind him helps to clean up a lot of mistakes, making him less of a liability on that end of the court.

Obviously, whether a trade is a good idea or not is highly dependent upon what the Timberwolves would get in return. I am not sure what value can be added by trading D’Lo. In my view, the Timberwolves should either wait to make that sort of trade after upping his value over the first half of the season, extend him at a lower-than-max price, say around $20 million, or wait until the off-season and hope he wants to stay at a discount.

Expectations

My expectations for this year are pretty high. If healthy, this should be a 50-win team and a top-6 seed avoiding the play-in. That’s the bare minimum in my opinion. If they don’t at least clear that bar I’ll be disappointed.

I think asking this team to take a step forward from last year - winning a round in the playoffs - is a reasonable ask. Hopefully, that will be made easier by being a top 4 seed and having home court advantage. Anything beyond that, like a Western Conference Finals appearance or more, would be incredible.

Over the next four years, the life of Gobert’s current deal, I think the Wolves will make the playoffs every year and will make at least one Western Conference Finals. If they don’t one could credibly call the trade a flop.

I certainly don’t expect the Timberwolves to win a championship because of this move, but I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility.

I have not been this excited for an NBA season, ever. Especially because I am now - for the first time - a season ticket holder. When does the schedule come out?! I'm ready!