Simon's NFL Regular Season Recap & Playoff Predictions

The NFL's 2022-2023 Regular Season has come to a close. It's time to get ready for the Playoffs. Before doing that I'm going to recap the Regular Season and review the quality of the predictions I made before it started.

Season Recap

This year was a fun one, especially as a Vikings fan. They won so many close games that came down to the wire. Including the one game I went to this season, a 33-point second-half comeback against the Colts, the greatest comeback in NFL history!

I also really enjoyed the top quarterbacks of course. The league is in good hands thanks to the likes of Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert, and Jackson. Probably throw Lawrence in there as well.

The NFL season wasn't without its downsides. A lot of teams, thinking mostly of the Broncos, Raiders, Rams, and Cardinals, had incredibly disappointing seasons. I'm not sure any of them have obvious solutions to their problems. Unless their QB situations magically resolve themselves they stand no chance to meaningfully address anything else.

This season also had its frightening moments. Tua with multiple concussions, one of which was visually striking, his body stiffened as he was knocked unconscious. Most shocking was Damar Hamlin's injury, which sent him to the hospital and (thankfully) resulted in the cancellation of that Monday Night Football game. I can't believe anyone would want that game to continue. How could anyone expect those players to play a game while their teammate, their friend, is headed to the hospital and may die or already be dead? It's insane. I'm glad the family, players, and coaches didn't have to endure that.

Reviewing My Predictions

Having looked over my 2022-2023 NFL Predictions, I did ok, I'm certainly not clairvoyant. I picked 5 of 8 division winners correctly, barely missing out on the AFC North (had Lamar Jackson stayed healthy, I think my prediction would've been correct). The other two misses though, picking the Colts and the Rams to win their divisions, were bad. The Colts became the laughing stock of the NFL when they hired a head coach with no experience, blew a 33-point lead in the second half against the Vikings (an NFL record), and finished the season with 7 straight losses. And the Rams had arguably the worst title defense ever.

I'll run down some more bad predictions I made... I thought...

• The AFC West would be full of great teams, but the Broncos and Raiders were both huge disappointments this season.

• The Jets would be terrible and "Saleh probably doesn’t make it as the Jets' head coach beyond this year".

• The Cardinals would win 10 games.

• The Seahawks would win 3 and I said "Geno Smith should not be a starting QB in the NFL".

• The Falcons would win 2 games.

• The Packers would win 12 games with a "top-tier" defense.

I did make some good predictions, however. As I said. I picked 5 of 8 division winners. I also picked 9 of 14 playoff teams. And I perfectly predicted the records for the Bears, Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Bengals, and Browns, and was only a game off for the Lions, Panthers, Steelers, Titans, Jaguars, and Texans. That's within 1 game for more than a third of the league. Not bad!

Here are some more predictions that held up...

• The Vikings improving thanks to a change at the Head Coaching position.

• The Lions being on the come-up, but missing the playoffs.

• The Bears having the worst record in the league.

• The 49ers going to the playoffs regardless of their QB situation.

• Everything I wrote about the Chiefs, Bengals, Steelers, Browns, Patriots, and Texans.

Frankly, most of those were pretty predictable. I'm not great at this but I don't think anyone is that good at it, really.

Playoff Predictions, Then & Now

This is what I predicted for the NFC Playoffs before the season: "The NFC Teams I think will make the playoffs are the Vikings, Packers, Eagles, Bucs, Saints, Rams, and 49ers. The Vikings will have the 1-seed and a bye in the first round. The Packers, Eagles, and 49ers will advance. The Vikings and Eagles will face off in the NFC Championship and the Vikings will return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1977."

4 out of 7 isn't very good, but it isn't terrible. In my defense, I think most people were pretty shocked by the Packers and the Rams being as bad as they were this season. The glowing optimism about the Vikings, a seeming hometown prediction, was more a lack of confidence in the other NFC teams than it was pounding of the chest for my favorite team.

There's a good chance I will be right about 3 of the four final teams in the NFC. If I had to pick a favorite it's the 49ers. Without knowing whether or not Jalen Hurts will be ready and good to go it's gotta be them. While the Vikings' offense can be electric at times, it often sputters and their defense is too porous, relying on turnovers to win games. The Cowboys looked awful last week and Dak hasn't been playing very well. The Bucs have no run game and haven't shown much sign of life this season, only making the playoffs thanks to being in arguably the worst division in football. And the Giants and Seahawks should be thrilled to not be clearing out their lockers yet.

I'll begrudgingly pick the Vikings to beat the Giants at home even though I have no confidence in that pick at all. I am confident, however, in picking the 49ers over the Seahawks and the Cowboys over the Bucs. That would lead to the Vikings at the 49ers and the Cowboys at the Eagles. I'll take The Eagles and the 49ers with the Eagles making the Super Bowl.

This is what I predicted in for the AFC Playoffs before the season: "I have the Ravens, Bengals, Colts, Bills, Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers making the Playoffs. The Bills will win the 1 seed. The Ravens, Chiefs, and Chargers will advance. The Chiefs will beat the Bills in the AFC Championship game."

5 of 7 playoff teams predicted correctly in the AFC. Given the quarterbacks in this conference, it was much easier. I am going to change my mind about a lot here. Lamar Jackson's status is unknown. Given the murkiness of his situation, I can't see them winning a game even if he does play. The Chargers' injury problems and questionable coaching have me lacking confidence in their ability. And the Dolphins are probably not going to have their starting quarterback and will be overmatched in the first round. Leading me to the three teams that have a shot of making it to the Super Bowl, the Bengals, Chiefs, and Bills. All three are dynamic teams led by elite quarterbacks that can carry a team on their own, but none of them have to. They are all surrounded by a lot of quality parts. For the Chiefs, it's Andy Ried, Travis Kelce, and Chris Jones. For the Bengals, it's Joe Mixon, Jamar Chase, and the rest of that receiving corp. And for the Bills, it's Stefon Diggs and a stifling defense. All three are going to feel as though their seasons were failures if they do not win the Super Bowl, let alone the AFC.

I'm going to pick the Jaguars in an upset over the Chargers, leading to Chargers' head coach Brandon Staley getting fired (and hopefully hired as defensive coordinator for the Vikings). I'm also going to pick both the Bills and Bengals to advance. That would lead to the Jaguars at the Chiefs and what I think will be a neutral site hosting the Bengals and the Bills. I'll stick with the Chiefs and stray from the Bills, picking the Bengals. I like the Chiefs in the AFC championship over the Bengals, getting a bit of revenge after losing the same game just a year ago.

Super Bowl Pick

That means I have the Chiefs and the Eagles facing off in the Super Bowl. I'll stick with my pre-season pick of the Chiefs. Can't go wrong with Patrick Mahomes! Whatever happens, I'm sure it'll be fun!